The Purpose of this site is to present results of observations and analyses of current and past economic conditions, trends, etc. I also want to throw out opinions about many different topics. Discussion is welcome.
Quick Background: Machinery & equipment appraisal, economic and statistical analysis, strategic/marketing analysis, and chemical engineering in the consulting, petroleum, natural gas, and chemical industries.
Academic training in chemical engineering, economics, econometrics, strategic management, and marketing management. Also specialized, formal training in machinery and equipment appraisal. Have applied all of these disciplines to real world problems, situations, issues, and conditions.
Complexity - Barrel and Replacement Cost New Methods: Two quick methods commonly used to estimate the value of a property are the Complexity - Barrel and the Replacement Cost New (RCN)approaches. Since refinery complexity values differ depending on the method used, the Complexity - Barrel approach should be adjusted to fit the database being used. Similarly, the RCN approach should be adjusted to fit reality. (Feb 2009)
Economic Obsolescence: Economic obsolescence is "loss of value or usefulness of a property caused by factors external to the property, such as increased cost of raw materials, labor, or utilities (without an offsetting increase in product price); reduced demand for the product; increased competition; environmental or other regulations; inflation or high interest rates; or similar factors. Litigation or threat of litigation can also affect the value of property in a negative way." (Feb 2009)
Refinery Margins: Refinery margins, as measured by an index, have been declining since the middle of 2006. While the index does not measure actual margins, it is useful as a trend indicator. (Mar 2009)
Petroleum and Natural Gas Trends: Long term trends show petroleum up and natural gas turning down. Consumption trends are far less "animated" over time. (Apr 2009)
Coal, Natural Gas, and Crude Oil Price Trends: If these three fuels were perfect substitutes, the price trends would be identical. However, they are not perfect substitutes in all uses. (May 2009)